Market Forecast

Well, the market shook off the rust in a big way yesterday.  And I profitably covered my shorts and took long positions in Uranium and Potash stocks. Today will be key to seeing whether there is follow through.  one step forward, one step back doesn't do much good for the equity curve.

But there was enough strength across the board that the shots needed to have been taken.

Market forecast = Choppy with a chance of sell off

NEUTRAL

TURNING BEARISH

TURNING BEARISH

CHOP

The Dollar Jar: Reinforcing Discipline Through Pain Association

One of  Tony Robbins' techniques is to associate pain with negative behavior to make lasting and immediate change.


Here's how I'm doing it with my trading:

Idea 1:  The Dollar Jar.  -- Every time I make a trade that deviates from my trading plan,  a dollar goes into a clear jar as tangible  reminder that I am throwing money away. .

Idea 2:  If idea No. 1 doesn't work, I will rip the dollar and throw it into the Jar.

Status:  I now have  $3.00 in the jar.  All chase trades.  While I made over $800 on these trades collectively (2 wins, 1 loss)  They will ultimately destroy me if I don't stop these types of trades. 

Trading With Tony Robbins

I am reading "Awaken the Gian Within" By Tony Robbins.  These types of books have become more helpful to my trading than actual trading books lately.  I've now reached the point where success and failure is determined by my discipline (or lack there of).

"It is in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped"

  

Mastery of 5 areas of life

1. Emotional Mastery
2. Physical Mastery
3. Relationship Mastery
4. Financial Mastery
5. Time Mastery. 

Interest in something is not Power,  It's a weak prayer without the faith to launch it.

Path to Power

1. Decide what you want
2. Take action
3. Notice what is working and what is not working
4. Change your approach until you achieve what you want.

Making a true decisions means committing to achieving a result, and then cutting yourself off from any other possibility. 

Repetition is the mother of skill. 

Design our lives. 

neuro-linguistic programming 

Pain: associate pain with negative behavior to make lasting and immediate change.

Application to trading. 

Actions I've been putting off

• Putting together a comprehensive trading plan
• Reasons why Tedious,
• it's work
• mire away in mediocrity. Stray from the things that work.
• Do not have fully developed rules that will carry me forward when trading is not easy. 
• STATUS: Work in progress.  I have created comprehensive guides for several of my setups.  But I still need to cover all of them and money management and broad market signals. 
• 
  
• Trading out of only my setups.
• Missing the profitable $quick money trade
• lead astray and take trades that 
• Not taking trades out of boredom
• I've attached an emotional factor to trading and I must be seeking excitement
• result, I take lower quality setups and stocks sometimes.
• Status: Improved but I'm still prone to chasing stocks. 
• 
  
• Record keeping
• Why not
• takes time
• Might not like what I see
• Problems: I miss trends in my behavior and what the market is telling me.  I miss opportunities to get feed back beyond my most recent trade. 
• Risks: If  I don't change all of these actions, I will never become a constantly profitable trader.   I will keep engaging in the boom and bust cycle and I will never become an independent full time trader. 
• Reason for change: y taking these actions, I will gain pleasure in knowing that I will become more profitable, I will be on my way to becoming a champion trader.

Status:  A damn Good Start.  Journal posted here.

"The Perfect Speculator"

I recently read the "perfect speculator" by Brad Koteshwar.

  Highly recommended, but rather than go through a "review"-- which there are already plenty of on Amazon.   Essentially, the ideal setup is something I already look for, which is a powerful move followed by an early base:

Then the "Perfect Speculator" trails the stock on weekly charts.

The one example is TASR. I thought I would chart  the Trade Journal entires from Tasr.

10/3/03 Entry 1:
Scot1and:  My slingshot entry would have put me in 2 days earlier

Entry 2:
My entry would have been 3 days earlier-- Slingshot on big volume.

EXIT:

Hmmm,   nailed the top?   I call B.S.   The  problem with this sale, is that our trend follower quits trend following and sells into exuberance. 

Consider the previous "blow off" -  =60% in  3 days doesn't trigger a sale?

Conclusion:    There's a lot to like in this book,  just don't use the example trade as the template.

Market Summary

SPX:
Trading Range
Note: Divergence on RSI

Transitions

Watch list

CPA
HYH
ALDW
GSVC
KMDA
CTRL
CENX
VISI
WGL
TTMI

2017 Recommitment To the process.

I'm recommitting myself to following my process, by writing it down it will reinforce the process. While 2016 was very good year, I could have done much better but made a few expensive forays into different trading setups that are not mine. I had gotten off track on blogging my trade journal after my daughter was born. So I am re committing myself to the journal. 

http://sostrading.blogspot.com/2017/01/bringing-back-trading-journal.html I made my first trades of the year today. I have spreadsheet with the trades, I'm using a 55K spec account. I would encourage everyone else to keep the journal. Let's hold each other accountable and all become better. 

GAME PLAN In 2017, win, lose, or draw, I will play my game and trade my setups: 
Bullish: Early Stage 2, 1st or 2nd stage base breakouts (anticipation); Slingshots IPO: ( Range Break, Flags, and "Reclaim The Fame" (RTF).) 

Bearish: Matador gaps, Stage 3 to 4 transitions. 

Biggest Area to Improve: Letting broad markets align and exiting when the broad odds are not in my favor.