Most things work 40-60% of the time. There is no holy grail.
5% of the time market is in a strong breakout, no decision trade in the direction of the trend.
In 5% clear trend. -- Ascertain direction and get in quickly. Buy close of bull bars- pull backs.
95% not in a pure trend-- both bulls and bears can make money.
Initial risk, every trader has initial risk that is different.
Actual risk.--- number of ticks needed to not take a loss on that trade.
Target needs to be as big as risk.
When probability not in trend. need 2x risk.
Wider stop = smaller size.
A lot of profit at 1 x 2 times risk. Computer driven.
- Take partial profits at min equation as of 2x actual risk.
- There is a profitable way to manage both short and long
Assume institutions are profitable. Always an institutional seller and buyer. In general there is balance.
- Market spends most of the time at point of the control.
PROBABLILTY IS THE SOURCE OF ALL EMOTION OF TRADER
- Makes beginners not entry too early or too late
- Reward should be at least equal to risk.
- if uncertain 40-50% of the time--- need 2x risk.
- Institutions can enter profitably on any tick on the day. They have a profitable strategy and employ it.
- Hedge in other markets
- Our edge is to trade setups. Always near support or resistance. Risk is small-- buying on support or probability is high.
- Profits disappear quickly.. take at least 1/2 at profit target.
Buying breakout --- there's an institution betting on failure of breakout.
Trading only profitable market structures.
Short at the bottom of a trading range should not be fighting with 2 sided trading.
Thanks for the post!
ReplyDeleteYou've made some pretty good points
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