Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Psychology before earnings: PLUG

This post is to assuage my own psychology and record my thoughts right as uncertainty is the highest 

 I've done my homework on PLUG. After doing so, I took a position on the hypothesis that company is early in its growth cycle. Tomorrow that hypothesis will be tested. Very rarely do I have complete confidence in a position and PLUG is no exception.  

We've all seen stocks take off in light of an earnings report. 50% - 70% or even 100%.  Of course, there there are many that go the other way.  Plug has many positive signs:

  • Strong Guidance forecast from 1st quarter (top end above consensus 16.7
  • BLDP reported heavy sales from PLUG
  • CEO's "breakout year" remarks.
Still, after more reflection, I find my way shying away from my Big Gain hypothesis. .
  • Number of shares outstanding-- 161  shares  (added 22.6 Million in April's secondary offering)  That's a lot of weight to carry.  
  • Excessive Bullishness  --
  • 97% BULLISH 
  • 3% BEARISH   
  • Stock-twits unscientific measure.  Could cause sell off even if earnings are great due to expectations. 
  • M.O.U. with Hyundai was supposed to be formalized into a J.V. by July 31. 
I'm still bullish, the chart looks fantastic.    I've managed my risk, I've gone through my trade plan.  May I have the discipline to follow it as volatility gets crazy.  Game on.

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