Tuesday, June 30, 2015

How to look through a chart.


There's a reason why I haven't updated my trade journal since last week:
Nice right. I cut my positions going into vacation.  The ones I didn't cut I should have and I eventually closed them

 I'm doing some mental trading exercises and thinking a lot through my trading strategies, psychology and results.  I added a small ONTY position this morning to help me concentrate on my thoughts.   Here is how a work through a chart and make a buy decision.

ONTY:

On the monthly we had a gap ... monthly gaps usually do not last and this recently filled and bounced right on the monthly.  We had a gap up on the early part of the month which has made the bar red.  That said, this is a legitimate move that just needed to gap fill.  That has now occurred as of yesterday.  Today It bounced back hard. and I bought Entry 3.72.

Now to the weekly:  Buyers fought off the breakdown attempt.  The gap filled and rallied back up.

Hourly: RSI pops back from oversold levels:


Sunday, June 28, 2015

What Animal is the Market to You

One of the books I'm reading is "Trading Chaos" by  Bill Williams:


Williams asks the reader "What animal best captures for you the characteristics of the market?"   This is on page 5 and I haven't read the rest of the book so I'm not sure where he's going with this but what the hell:

To me, the market is a Jelly fish:

Tantalizing and beautiful as it flows effortlessly yet dangerous if embraced without care.




Mind Games: Trading Psychology

I've spent a lot of time working out the details of the setups I find profitable.  I know they work.  Now I need to work on me.  I.e. the psychological component of trading.  It doesn't matter how good my trading strategies are If I cannot execute.  


Sure the "psychology of trading" sounds cliched but I feel it is what is holding me back at times.   For example, at times:
  •  I've fretted over pull backs 
  • I've put on too much size
  • I've put on too little size
  • I've held on to losing trades
  • I've chased trades
  • I've been unable to pull the trigger.
  • I've worried over whether to sell into a strength, 
  • I've broke or bent my rules after a winning streak only to give back entire stretches of profit and more. 
  • I've even found myself searching twitter message boards to determine who else is in the trade and what are they thinking (i.e. I did not have enough confidence in the trade to not give a damn what anyone else thought) 
I suspect I'm not the only one to have those issues at times.  Those are all signs that I'm not completely comfortable with my trade and I am not seeing my vision for the trade or I am doubting it.

Yet, I've also had moments where:
  • I saw the entry perfectly and hit it. 
  • I bought pull backs because I knew they were an opportunity
  • I bought breakouts at levels others were too afraid and the market ripped in my direction
  • I've gotten out of potential losers before they broke against me because I could read the price action. 
  • I didn't care what any analyst, other trader thought because I knew what my plan was.
That emotional state feels amazing.  And I don't want to ever go back to insecure trading. 


For that reason, I will be delving into trading psychology, my psychology in a number of posts.  This month. I have read/ am reading a number of books on trading psychology and I will be working through the exercises.  I will be doing it publicly because by sharing I force myself to face my insecurities and defeat them.  By defeating fears, I can reach objectivity.


 Mark Douglas' "The Disciplined Trader" speaks the process to reaching the this psychological state:

 
1. Learning the dynamics of goal achievement to stay positively focused on what you want-not and what you fear. 
2. Learning how to recognize the skills you need to progress as a trader and then stay focused on the development of those skills, instead of the money, which is merely a by-product of your skills. 
3. Learning how to adapt yourself to respond to fundamental changes in market conditions more readily. 
4. Identifying the amount of risk you are comfortable with - your "risk comfort level"-and then learn how to expand it in a way that is consistent with your ability to maintain an objective perspective of market activity. 
5. Learning how to execute your trades immediately upon your perception of an opportunity. 
6. Learning how to let the market tell you how much is enough, instead of assessing the potential from your personal value system of how much is enough. 
7. Learning how to structure your beliefs to control your perception of market movement. 
8. Learning how to achieve and maintain a state of objectivity. 
9. Learning how to recognize "true" intuitive information and then learning how to act on it consistently.

So that's the plan. I must conquer my demons to truly become a successful trader  The failure to do so means my successes will be short lived.  I.e. that I simply borrow money from Mr. Market because I'm sure to have to pay it back If I don't have the solid psychological foundation.

Cheers.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Why I Trade

Why do I trade?

I suppose the easy response would be for the money.  But I don't think that's it. I already have a six figure income as a litigator and I've enjoyed the accolades that have come with success.  I'm being consistently named among the top in my field and I've won cases that others (including my opponents) have thought were unwinnable.  I've argued motions with millions of dollars at stake.  I've won millions for my clients at trial.

 The skills I have that set me apart is my ability to implement a winning strategy, anticipate my opponents moves, and have a response.  I see the chess board. I know what my opponent's move will be before they do and I've already beaten them.  They just do not yet know it.  Although this is a blessing, knowing what the result will be 6 months ahead of time makes it difficult to wait patiently and go through the motions.  A complex lawsuit may take years to complete. The truth is I often become bored with the litigation process.

So I trade. 

I trade because the market presents orderly chaos. It does not lie to me, it has no agenda, or rationalization--it just is. It presents an endless stream of opportunities held in check by unlimited opportunities for ruin.  I know the face of my adversaries. In litigation, my advisory is opposing counsel.  In trading, its me. 

 I trade because the market gives me instant feedback.  If I'm wrong, I will know it quickly.  I own my losses.  They were not caused by the "shorts," an analyst's unexpected downgrade, a binary risk, or a Jim Cramer bash.  They were caused by me. I alone entered the trade. I alone chose how I defined my win or loss, and I alone chose how I exited the position.

I trade because I recognize that "value" is an illusion. It does not exist.  Stocks are not the companies they represent. I buy and sell psychological states. A stock is never overbought or oversold. It is never a "Value" play.  Rather,  as discussed by Mark Douglas' the Disciplined Trader Value = Comfort.  Value traders are betting that a stock trade at level where it becomes psychologically comfortable to buy.  Perhaps that's based on company's earnings or whatever the in vogue "valuation" is at the moment.  In other words, it is an approach that attempts to find a trend in a fundamental measure that becomes comfortable to buy. Although a fundamental investor will never admit it, they are trading psychology. I readily acknowledge it. 

I seek to capitalize on identifying the tipping point where a level that as comfortable to sell suddenly becomes uncomfortable.  The short sellers rush to cover the buyers rush in afraid of missing the next big thing.  I then sell to the late buyers at a handsome profit.  

 Most of all, I am trading my own psychological state.  I've had some of best trading runs after defeat and my worst losses after huge gains  The markets were not overbought or oversold--- my mental state was.   I've had epic defeats. I refused to take a loss because I could do no wrong.  My worst losses all started out as marginal winners, but I had a vision.  The market just didn't yet see it yet, so I held.  I held to the point where I gave up those gains.  I continued to hold to the next support level and then the one after that. I held till I realized  I had a problem and then looked at the mirror and I sold and skies cleared and clarity resumed. I then position sized appropriately, I plan my trades, I honored my stops and my equity curve grew. I just had a 14% run,  I reached Nirvana during that run, I saw the trade develop and I executed.  I sold losing trades early, and I held my winners. 

When I plan my trade, and I execute it properly it feels fucking wonderful. 

That is why I trade. 







Saturday, June 20, 2015

The Four Horsemen of Failure.


Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make—causing the money to just evaporate before your eyes—will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table. What I call the four primary trading fears.”" -

How do the deadly 4 manifest?

Being wrong
Not taking an early loss.
Moving a stop loss to give it more space

Losing money
Cutting gains short when a trade starts to go against you.  
Currently this is the one I struggle with the most at this stage in my trading 

Missing out
Chasing
Taking trades that don't fit into your system because they are moving. 


Leaving money on the table
Thelma and Louise, cliff... you get the picture. 



Sunday, June 7, 2015

Interesting graph

Now I'm a big believer of buying strength.  The best stocks account for all gains.