Sunday, July 17, 2016

Recent IPOS.

I love trading in recent IPOs.  Many times these can be very profitable trades for bulls over a couple of months for a couple of reasons.

First,  the floats tend to be small at this stage due to various lockouts, etc. it does not take much to get these moving.

Second, there numerous mutual funds, ETFs, etc... that must buy the new IPO on the open market,  That provides price support.

Third, the quiet period allows news, and analyst targets to stack up and provide a boost when the quiet period ends.

Others' warnings: Without exception, I have never bought an IPO the most were not saying was "overvalued"  Ignore that nonsense,  I want power, I want momentum, I want huge gains.  Overbought gets overboughter on these types of stocks.  Follow price and ignore the rest.

With that being said, let's take a look at the big 3 IPOs that recently began trading.

TWLO: My Favorite and I still continue to hold the position I've acquired in the low 30s.
Trend line is in place,  any bounces off that trend line can, and should be bought.

ACIA:  So much power,  I had a great entry but sold for a $7 gain after on the shadow bar.
LN: This just started trade.  Predictably, it "enjoyed" a second day pull back.  But so did TWLO and ACIA,  in both of those stocks bears were pronouncing them as failures.  

Yet, as with TWLO and ACIA, there were some productive things going on in the shorter term charts.    Notice how LN just went range bound on the hourly.   That tells us the downward momentum is wanning-- i.e. the first day chasers have now exited.    This gives us a lower risk entry. We can risk a small amount-- using hourly lows as our stops and if the trade works, we make 10X R returns.  Yes please!

Also,  many momentum traders will wait until  an IPO  retakes its first day close to enter.  That is a classic setup that many are watching and waiting for.  I  would rather get in before that point, with well defined risk and let those traders push this higher.

So, we'll see how this pans out.


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