You Can't Time the Market.

We've heard forever from the that you can't time the market. I used to think that was nonsense. After all, isn't that what successful traders are doing every day. But I've been doing some contemplation. I now agree-- we can't time the market.  But that's not to say we can't make money from attempting timing the market.  

I'm sure that sounds like an inconsistent statement.  It's not. 

We can identify asymmetrical risk / reward opportunities and exploit them. Being focused on the R/R and thinking in terms of probabilities has been game changing philosophically for me. These realization has helped me overcome the need to be right. I lost on over 53% of my trades last month yet still achieved over an 8% gain. That wouldn't have happened if I had "confidence" in a trade. I would have held on and suffered a devastating loss as I have at some points in my trading. I guess I came to the realization that, I don't really care if my next trade is a winner so long as I've managed risk. I'm sure that realization is not novel systems traders don't care a bit about one particular trade so long as it fits in their models.  But as discretionary traders, we tend to placed too much importance on being right.   I now see how much that has cost me.  

How many trades would I have executed differently (position sizing, stop levels).  Would I have added to a losing trade, if I went into the trade with the view that it was just as likely to be a loser as a winner. Over the years my worst losses have been in the trades where I've had conviction in the fundamental view or the story behind the stock. ... no more.